Today I was asked if I had seen the weather forecast for the bank holiday period, to which I replied "which one?" To say I am disappointed with the forecasting of the Met office (I usually refer to them as the "met orifice") is an understatement. Many people seem to have the same opinion. People who know me will appreciate that this is a pet hate of mine.
The forecasting we have on British television has long been an insulting image of some unqualified young bimbo giving what cannot possibly qualify as a 'weather forecast'. Occasionally we do actually see a qualified meteorologist adding a little extra weight to the forecast and sometimes they even dare to predict what the weather might do the following day. More often, it's a quick few sentences giving the most basic of basic detail, finishing off with lines like "If you want more detail tune in later" or "you can find out more weather information on our website". Why would I want to check on a website when I have just tuned in to the TV station to find out? Ah yes, maybe those "apps" and all that advertising, etc. Don't forget to tick the box which says "Please spam me to death with endless ads for debt collectors and dating agencies".
When I go abroad, I occasionally get to see another country's national weather forecast. Overseas, they seem to approach the weather with more respect, giving a far more detailed account. I have seen weather bulletins last as long as 20 minutes! There are even dedicated weather channels which are constantly updated, unlike our own BBC weather bulletins, which tends to be repeated, particularly throughout the night. "Updates"? Try "Repeats"! I remember once being told that weather forecasting abroad is so precise that they can actually predict which Swiss valleys will have a shower and which will not. Maybe their weather is more predictable than ours, I don't know, but I do understand that our climate can throw up some challenging situations which can present even the most experienced forecasters with many challenges. But I still fail to understand how they can get things wrong with such regularity.
So, I was then asked where do I get my weather forecasts if I don't trust the Met Office? And could I put this information on my blog for future reference.
Well, I occasionally mention to people that the US military offer very good general synopses for UK weather. I have a friend who is a pilot and has a small plane and has long relied on their forecasts because, time and time again, they have proven to be vastly more reliable than our own met Office forecasts. Can you believe that? You have to wonder why our Met Office, with their millions of £s worth of high tech forecasting equipment, can get it so disastrously wrong.
Here are a few online sites I check if I want to know what's going to happen.
To begin with, check the current situation at the Meteox page. You'll need to adjust the coordinates in the URL. I have this centered on the east coast. You can zoom in and out, move the map, etc. and it shows you what's just around the corner. Bear in mind it may be a few minutes behind real-time.
For studying the general trends, look at the Netweather Jetstream Forecast. You have a sliding scale which shows the position of the jet stream over the coming days and weeks. It should give you a general idea of whether we will be moving into a zone of warmer or cooler air, etc.
ESTOFEX is the European Storm Forecast Experiment, in which the UK now have a presence. You will find a pretty accurate and very detailed forecast of the chances of having and the severity of potential thunder storms. I have found this to be very accurate.
There's a page showing humidity levels over the United Kingdom via Weatherforce.
If you want to see where the lightning is, the following website show the more intense activity:
Netweather
EUCLID
Blitzortung
Meteorcentre
Triangulation methods are used which help in pinpointing the activity with a good level of precision. I have found that the smaller storms won't necessarily show on the above sites. For something more detailed or and closer to home you will need to locate a weather station near you. There are many amateur weather stations spread across the UK but be aware that triangulation is not always used or is not necessarily as accurate, depending on the methods used. They should give a fair idea of storm activity in the areas close to the individual weather stations though. I have bookmarked some of the more reliable ones for the following areas:
Cambridge
Ipswich
Burton-on-Trent
North London
Isle Of Wight
Morecambe Bay
You may need to give permission for a Java app to run for some of the above. It's quite safe!
Other useful sites:
The UK GFS Forecast
The Michael Fish Forecast (don't worry, there won't be any hurricanes today)
Infrared Image
and if you are really desperate, there's always ...
The BBC / Met Office forecast
... but I don't think there's any harm in simply wetting your index finger and sticking it in the air.
Happy forecasting!
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